We hear it from head coaches in college football during most pre-game and post-game press conferences.

“The key to this game will be limiting turnovers.” “We can’t expect to win a game by giving the ball away 4 times.” “If we don’t turn the ball over or can limit ourselves to one, I think we have a good chance on Saturday.” “When you’re up against a top-10 opponent, you can’t turn the ball over because it’s like giving them points.” “We focused on ball security all week.” “I thought that the interception in the 3rd quarter really changed the momentum of the game for us.”

In spite of the universal understanding that forcing turnovers is a good thing, let’s take a closer look at their significance. We compiled data from the 2013 Pac-12 season to see what, if any, indicators of turnover margins have in winning or losing games or even determining a successful season for a program.

These are the final figures from each team’s nine conference games. Non-conference games are excluded. To maintain parody, we are not including results from the Pac-12 Championship game.

2013 Pac-12 Turnover Report: Final Turnover Margins

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Observations from the Pac-12 Turnover Report:

A) The top six teams (ASU, Stanford, Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington) all finished the season with a positive turnover margin.

B) Arizona State beat out all teams in the TO Battle, finishing at +12. They also accumulated the most wins in the conference… eight.

C) Of the bottom six teams (Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon St, Utah and Washington St), five lost the turnover battle in 2013. Only Oregon St. came out ahead with a +2 margin while still winning only four games.

D) The bottom three teams in turnover margin (Colorado, Utah and Cal) also had the three worst records in the conference, combining for a total of 3 wins and 22 losses.

E) ASU placed 4th in total turnovers lost at 12. The top three were UCLA (10) and Washington & USC (11). On the flipside, Washington St and Utah, both of which finished in the bottom third of the conference, turned the ball over more than any other program. Each had 24 turnovers.

F) When taking all 54 conference games into consideration, there were exactly two hundred turnovers including 120 interceptions (60%) and 80 fumbles (40%). Interesting Note – ASU and USC tied for the highest ratio of interceptions forced to fumbles forced. Three of every four turnovers by the Devils and Trojans were interceptions.

G) For every turnover lost by ASU this year (12), they forced two turnovers (24). That was second only to UCLA who forced just over two turnovers for every one they lost (the Bruins had 10 turnovers but gained 21).

2013 Pac-12 Turnover Report: Final Win Totals

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After the next Bowl Game you watch, glance over the exhaustive stat sheet provided by the universities. It could give you a headache, but take a close look at the turnover margin between both teams and see how it lines up with the final score. Expect the two to be in agreement. The numbers tell us they usually are.

Finally, lets look at an example from the season. Rewind to the final seconds of ASU vs Wisconsin on Sept. 14 in Tempe when Badger quarterback, Joel Stave, set the football on the ground to set up a last second field goal to win the game. ASU’s defense saw a loose ball since Stave never clearly took a knee and in that moment, Anthony Jones and Jaxon Hood smothered the loose ball.

Seconds later, Tempe erupted. The Devils secured a dramatic and unlikely win in just the second game of its loaded schedule. That “turnover” and victory over #20 Wisconsin added to ASU’s momentum in a regular season in which they won 10 games. 

Yeah. Turnovers are good. Keep your eyes open for our next installment of the Pac-12 Turnover Report.

ASU snatches a victory from Wisconsin on September 14, 2013