Sun Devils Strength of Schedule

It starts out simple enough.

The Bowl Championship Series or BCS is a selection method that generates five bowl-game match-ups. These matchups include ten of the top ranked teams in the NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision, as well as an opportunity for the two top teams to square off in the National Championship game. Fans and critics have harshly criticized the BCS, but that’s a discussion best left for another day.

Determining which teams make the cut is where it can get a little difficult. It starts with each team’s strength of schedule rating or SOS. Since many college football enthusiasts including Sun Devil fans are a little unclear about how this measurement is determined for each football program, we will do our best to simplify it here.

If you’re not familiar with it, don’t really like math, or don’t know what to look for, the formula can be confusing. The most simple definition of how strength of schedule rating is calculated is by checking the cumulative win/loss records of, for example, the Sun Devils’ opponents as well as the cumulative win/loss records of ASU’s opponents’ opponents. Stay with me.

The formula is then weighted 66% for the opponent’s record and 33% for the opponent’s opponents’ record. The formula looks like this:

Once this formula calculates the winning percentages of both, each team is then ranked in a quartile (1-25, 26-50, 51-75, 76-100). And finally, each team is then further quantified by its specific ranking within each quartile. This SOS rating is only part of the total equation, but we’re almost there.

Let’s look at an example. If a team’s SOS ranking is 28^th in the nation, that team earns additional points that are added to their BCS poll total. To find the total points, it’s simple math: divide the ranking by the number of teams in each quartile (28/25 = 1.12). 1.12 points are then added to that team’s BCS poll total.

So how does this all relate to ASU and why should Sun Devils care? In 2013, Arizona State’s pre-season strength of schedule rating was 13^th in the nation. This was a big step up from 2012 when ASU was ranked 39^th, and even a bigger jump from 47^th in 2011. This is when things start to get interesting.

By playing a tougher schedule every year, the Sun Devil program improves its profile on the national stage. The saying goes, “To be the best, you have to beat the best.” ASU’s future strength of schedule includes Notre Dame who will travel to Tempe on Saturday, Nov. 8 next season and ASU’s newly announced match-up with Texas A&M to be played at Reliant Stadium (cover photo) in Houston, TX on Sept. 5, 2015. Both are amongst the highest profile programs in the country. 

With the changes that are being made to the football program at ASU, including the hiring of Todd Graham, the toughening of the strength of the schedule, improved recruiting classes and plans to re-design Sun Devil Stadium, one thing is simple to see: the Sun Devils have put themselves in the position to become a perennial Top-20 program. Winning is the final step.

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