By James Romo for DieHardDevil.com

The final installment of the 2012 Sun Devil Football season takes place on Saturday at 2:00 PM Arizona State Sun Devil time in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco, California against a disciplined and formidable Navy Midshipmen team.  The Sun Devils capped off a 7-5 regular season on Thanksgiving weekend with a big win over their in-state rival, and are looking to emerge victorious on Saturday to carry the momentum of an eight-win season into the spring.  The Devils showed up in the bay area earlier this week and have made some positive noise by volunteering at a homeless shelter, and have kept a relatively low-key in preparation for the Midshipmen.  The Navy squad brings a very different look on offense than what the ASU defense has had to face all season.  We will take a look at Navy, and break down what to look for this weekend after a 36 day reprieve from the regular season finale.

Intangibles “X” Factor

I would normally start a game preview article with the schematic break-downs of the respective offenses and defenses.  For this game, I think it’s important to note that intangibles will come into play just as much, if not more, than when playing a rivalry game.  In a rivalry game, things like injuries, team psyche, turnovers, and big plays that swing momentum (see 11/23 in Tucson) tend to be huge variables in the outcome.  But when playing a team like Navy, discipline, weather, field conditions, and just how much rust needs to be knocked off, are just as much a variable.  This game will be played at AT&T Park in San Francisco in December, which is a far cry from the fair weather and short grass that ASU has the luxury of competing in the friendly confines of Sun Devil Stadium.  The playing conditions for game time call for a 60% chance of rain and a high of 52 degrees on a thick turf (including some new sod added for the game) that will negate much of the speed that ASU typically employs as one of its biggest weapons.  The conditions look like they call for a good old fashioned game of smash-mouth football, and may hinder some of the finesse offense that has been a Sun Devil staple in their offensive success this season.  On the flip side, Navy will never beat themselves with inopportune penalties or break-downs in assignments.  This game should be clean in every sense of the word other than the relative cleanliness of each team’s uniform at the final whistle.

ASU Offense vs Navy Defense

ASU, maybe for the first time all season, will have a height and weight advantage across the line.  The Sun Devils offensive line will absolutely HAVE to establish the run game against an over-matched Navy D-line, and may have the elements on their side.  As stated above, weather and field conditions favor the ASU offensive line, running game, and short passing attack.  We should see that play directly into the hard-running style of Cameron Marshall, while still allowing TE Chris Coyle and RB’s DJ Foster and Marion Grice to be productive on short routes out of the backfield.  Depending on game time conditions in the bay area, it may be time for the ASU receiving core to break out of a season-long slump.  If the Middies are forced to go man-to-man on the outside, there still may be some big plays to be had.

Navy employs a 3-4 defense, but unlike ASU, they have more of a “bend, but don’t break” philosophy versus the attack-minded ASU 3-4 that will bring blitzes from all over the field.  I tend to think that game day intangibles will still allow the Devils to keep the playbook open for the short and intermediate routes to be open, especially if Navy is forced to stack the line of scrimmage with 8 defenders in an attempt to stop the running game.  Much like the final conference game of the season in Tucson, ASU (successful or not) will pound the ball inside, even if it means that QB Taylor Kelly appears to be making bad reads, in order to wear down the Navy defense.

There really are no secrets or huge adjustments that ASU has to make on offense other than adapting to the weather and game conditions for that particular day.  The west coast Pac-12 teams traditionally have the luxury of warm weather and immaculate fields in late December, but this weekend may be more suitable for Big-10 teams or east coast teams more accustomed to wallowing in mud. The Sun Devil offense mixed in a few wrinkles of their own in Tucson with Kelly running our own “pitchfork” version of the option.  Conditions may call for at least one or two of those big plays late in the game (if ASU is able to soften up the interior of the Midshipmen defense) based on the success that we saw in November.

ASU Defense vs Navy Offense

Navy is one of the only teams in D-1 Football that still runs the flexbone triple option offense.  The theory behind it is that there are height and weight restrictions when playing for one of the service academies.  They don’t have 320 pound guards who are blowing people off the line of scrimmage.  However, that doesn’t mean that they are under-manned.  It means that they are playing to their strength – quickness, misdirection, and misconception.  Navy’s triple option attack lines up in a modified version of the Wishbone, called the Flexbone with QB Keenan Reynolds (5-9, 170).  Running backs line up close to the line instead of behind the fullback, as they would in a true wishbone attack.  The quarterback either gives to the fullback on a dive play inside if the defensive end “stays home”, or keeps it around the corner if the defensive end “crashes down” to defend against the inside run.  This is commonly referred to as “Ride and Decide” with the QB either handing off, or faking to the fullback depending on how he reads the defense as the play develops.

ASU’s Will Sutton has consistently beat his blocker and wreaked havoc in the backfield at the mesh point against similar offenses, not allowing opposing QB’s the luxury of time to decide.  An extremely talented and intellectual, but small, Reynolds might not want to deal with Sutton (if healthy) in his face all afternoon.  If the QB keeps the ball, he then has the option to carry it himself, or pitch to his running back who is tailing him on the edge of the defense.  Thus, the definition of the triple option: 1) Give to the Fullback 2) QB keep on an outside run 3) Pitch to the running back who is tailing him, is what ASU Defensive Coordinator Paul Randolph’s ASU defense will have to defend.

Photo credit: Doug Haller

Sounds simple enough, right?  Same formation, same play, not a ton of diversity, right?  But what this means for the ASU defense is that they had better be stout in the middle to stuff the fullback, and be assignment sound on the outside to stop the QB for a keeper and/or take away the running back’s availability to receive the pitch or they’re in for chasing people down the field.  Personnel-wise, I predict that ASU may spend more time in a 4-3 defensive front, even if one of the front 4 is in a standing (rush position), but 4 on the line, nonetheless.  This gives them the width that they need to defend the pitch, while still having bodies in the middle to stop the run. This also means that the DT (Jackson Hood) and DE (Will Sutton) function as true DT’s to stuff the dive to the fullback.  If the QB keeps the ball, the LB on that side (Brandon Magee or Chris Young) and DE (Junior Onyeali/Davon Coleman or Carl Bradford) get to the outside of the offensive tackle and either make a play on the QB, force him back inside to the waiting safeties (Alden Darby or Keelan Johnson) in second level support, or force a pitch to the running back.

If the Navy QB pitches the ball to his running back, the outside LB (Magee or Young) contain the RB (pitch-man), making sure that they are never beaten to the outside. As soon as they see the pitch, they attack the RB. The cornerbacks (Deveron Carr or Osahon Irabor) serve as additional outside containment.  ASU has typically run a “field side” (wide side) or “boundary side” (short side) personnel assignment scheme depending on which hash mark the ball is placed to further their relative strengths against the pass.  Depending on Navy’s propensity to pass the ball, it is uncertain if they will keep to that philosophy.  My assumption is that they will in order to maintain consistency, and to continue their 11th ranked national pass efficiency defense in the event that Navy attempts to employ a more prominent passing game.  The weather forecast tells me that Navy will continue to ride the strength of their 276 yard average rushing/game attack and exploit the weather conditions by the bay.

Statistics were intentionally left out of this pregame review.  Playing in different conferences, with differing schemes, and in a bowl game setting, statistics are the absolute last thing that will determine the outcome of this game.  There are no common opponents and at least a month between regular season showdowns with our respective rivals.  When you play a team from one of our United States service academies, heart, soul, determination, and pride will always tell more of the story than any set of numbers.  Enjoy this one DieHardDevils.  Grice is back, ASU is breaking out a new uniform combo and this could be the last game for Will Sutton as a Sun Devil.  After the bowl game ends tomorrow, it’s going to feel like a lifetime until we reconvene for another one.

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